The Accelerationist Events Dataset: A Demographic Examination
Grace Stewart & Mary Bennett Doty
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This essay is the third contribution in a multi-part series of the analytical exploration of the newly launched Accelerationism Events Dataset (AED), which captures events of far-right militant accelerationism and proto-accelerationism from 1990 through November 2023. This piece provides a demographic-driven analysis of the 265 cases which make up the AED. To learn about the overall structure of the project, including the history of militant accelerationism and inclusion criteria, please read the introductory piece for this series; and to learn about the tactics, techniques, and procedures seen throughout cases, please see the second contribution to the series.
This piece explores the core typologies of far-right accelerationist actors in the US, in addition to their specific demographic breakdown captured in the AED. These data are discussed in comparison to the broader tPP dataset, which captures felony-level cases of political violence occurring in the US during the same time period (January 1990 – November 2023). This allows a detailed discussion of accelerationist events (i.e., AED) shown in comparison to a broader view of political violence operating in the US more generally (i.e., tPP). This comparison is essential to demonstrate how accelerationist action both differs and reflects the broader political violence landscape.
Accelerationist Typologies
Accelerationists are often guided by identity-based bias; they are motivated by doctrines of white supremacist extremism and utilize violent military-level tactics to expedite the collapse of political systems by any means necessary. Although not a perfect taxonomic breakdown, most far-right accelerationists within our dataset fall within one or both of these two groups: those motivated by white supremacism (36% or 96 out of 265) and those motivated by anti-government animus (55% or 145 out of 265); based on our methodology, we tagged accelerationists based on seven different variables, which are listed in the first piece of this series.
White Supremacist Accelerationists
Most of the infamous accelerationist crimes in recent years have involved violent individuals targeting racial-ethnic communities, such as the 2022 shooting at a Tops supermarket in Buffalo, New York. Accelerationists who identify with racially-based grievances have generally adopted and advanced white genocide conspiracy theories such as the Great Replacement Theory, which suggests white Americans and white Europeans are intentionally and systematically being replaced by racial and ethnic minority communities at a population and cultural level.
White supremacists tend to believe that they are under attack by multicultural forces who are working to take down social institutions and structures that prioritize white people – as can be seen by both the Buffalo shooter, as well as by participants in the 2017 Unite the Right rally, such as defendant James Alex Fields, who deliberately drove his car into a crowd of leftist protesters challenging individuals opposing the removal of a statue honoring Confederate General Robert E. Lee. White supremacist accelerationists believe that accelerationism will create enough chaos for them to destabilize our government, ignite a race war, and ultimately establish a sense of dominance over our country.
Anti-Government Accelerationists
Anti-government accelerationists are individuals who believe governments are fundamentally corrupt and infringing on individual liberties. They advocate for the destruction of existing governmental structures and institutions and for accelerating societal chaos that they believe will lead to the establishment some new social order, even if they are unsure of what that future order looks like; thus, anti-government accelerationists hope to destabilize governments by any means necessary. While there were various mobilizing motivations involved in the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol (including those who were present to espouse white supremacist beliefs), we categorize those who were present as being there, at least in part, to catalyze the destruction of democracy on January 6, 2021 exemplify this anti-government archetype.
Demographic Trends
Given the context of these accelerationist categories, this piece seeks to identify the primary demographic trends in AED cases. The data below was collected, coded, and verified by our research team and pulled from our AED and tPP spreadsheets; and it should also be noted that the team was able to identify the gender identities of all 265 defendants in the AED.
The following highlights high-level trends for all AED cases with accompanying data visualizations that reveal the following:
Overall, the majority of accelerationists in the AED are white males in their early twenties or early thirties who are either veterans or active duty military and identify as Christian.
Men make up 97% of all AED cases (257/265), whereas white men specifically make up 75% (200/265).
The majority of these actors are between the ages of 21 and 30 years old (172/200).
Of the white male accelerationist defendants, 11% are active or former duty military (21/200) –– 6% of whom are combat veterans (12/200).
Table 1: Demographic Trends Among AED and tPP Defendants
For the purposes of this analysis on demographics, the data were split into 4 sub-datasets that can be viewed above in Table 1. Our team looked at the demographic data from AED defendants, and compared them to our overall tPP dataset. Due to the significant number of people arrested on January 6th, we included an analysis with and without these individuals to limit skewed results. The following sections provide a further breakdown of those demographic trends.
Gender in the AED
As mentioned above (and seen below in Figure 1), men make up the great majority (97%) of AED cases, with over one-quarter (29%) of those cases having taken place during the January 6 insurrection.
Of the 3% of women (7 defendants) that make up the AED overall, 4 (71%) committed their crimes with a co-offender, and 3 committed their crimes outside of the insurrection. While the cases of female defendants in both the AED and tPP are low (under 10% each), it is notable that accelerationist women are more likely to have a co-offender than general tPP female defendants.
Figure 1: Comparable Gender Breakdown Between AED, tPP, January 6 AED Events, and non-January 6 AED Events
Thus, the gender demographic of AED actors appears to have similar trends to that of general tPP trends, although AED female defendants are more likely to act with co-defendants.
Race in the AED
As displayed in Figure 2 below, the great majority of defendants across all research areas in this report are white. Of the races identified in the ‘Other’ category, Latino/Hispanic individuals comprised the largest subgroup of accelerationist defendants 3% (8/265) for all AED, 4% (3/79) for J6, 3% for non-J6 (5/186), while Middle Eastern/North African defendants made up the largest subgroup of defendants for tPP 17% (676/3976).
Figure 2: Comparable Race Breakdown Between AED, tPP, January 6 AED Events, and non-January 6 AED Events
As shown in Figure 2, tPP defendants are more diverse than accelerationists. Therefore, far-right accelerationists committing acts of illegal political violence in the US are more than likely going to be white.
Veteran Status in the AED
The majority of defendants in AED are civilians (212/265), but of those who are non-civilians, almost one-quarter (22%) of J6 AED defendants are former active duty veterans, compared to only 6% of veterans in non-J6 events, and 11% of AED overall. It should also be noted that only two AED defendants were dishonorably discharged from the US military prior to their accelerationist action.
Based on Figure 3 below, we can summarize:
20% (53/265) of AED defendants, and 5% (208/3976) of tPP defendants are veterans. This translates to 1 in 5 AED actors, and 1 in 19 tPP actors serving currently or previously in the armed forces.
Of the 80% (212/265) of AED individuals who are civilians, 81% (172/212) are men, 88% (187/212) are White/Caucasian, 32% (68/212) are Christian, and the majority of defendants fall within 21-30 years of age.
Of the 20% (53/265) of AED individuals who are veterans, 100% are men, 96% (48/53) are White/Caucasian, 30% (16/53) are Christian, and the majority of defendants fall within 25-35 years of age.
Figure 3: Veteran Status Breakdown Between AED, tPP, January 6 AED Events, and non-January 6 AED Events
According to Figure 3, the second largest subgroup of accelerationists are former active duty veterans. Therefore, there is reason to suspect that defendants utilizing violent military-level tactics are likely the ones with prior experience as active duty veterans.
Other Notable AED Demographics
Religion
The primary religion affiliated with AED actors (with known religious identities) is Christianity (31% of all AED, or 84 cases), whereas the primary religion for general tPP defendants (when known) is Islam (24% of all tPP, or 966 cases). It is notable that far-right accelerationists are more likely to affiliate with Christianity than their far-right counterparts in tPP.
Citizenship Status
Only 2% (4/265) of AED actors are non-citizens (i.e., foreign nationals). When compared to citizenship status of tPP defendants overall (which tends to encompass more defendants affiliated with Foreign Terrorist Organizations), the majority of defendants are still US citizens, but the percentage of non-citizens is significantly higher (17%, 657/3976).
Conclusion
The vast majority of far-right accelerationists in the AED are white males in their early twenties and thirties. While the number of former or active duty military and Christian defendants may not account for the majority of AED defendants, the percentages of those actors in the AED are much more significant than those accounted for in the general tPP dataset. These defendants are often guided by identity-based bias or anti-government sentiments that promote the collapse of the current political system.
Grace Stewart is a Senior Coder with the Prosecution Project and is currently pursuing a degree in Sociology with a focus on Criminology at Miami University. Grace is also an ambassador for a student success program that focuses on providing undergraduate students with a strong foundation of skills necessary for pursuing collegiate-level research projects. She is also the co-president of Alpha Kappa Delta, an honor society for sociology majors.
Mary Bennett Doty is a Senior Research Specialist at Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative, as well as a Senior Coder with the Prosecution Project. Mary Bennett’s research focuses on the monitoring and mitigation of offline manifestations of political violence. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views of her employer.
This report is part of a multi-publication series led by Dr. Michael Loadenthal, and supported by research conducted by Mary Bennett Doty, Samantha Fagone, Grace Stewart, Olivia Thomas, and Bella Tuffias-Mora.
To see the introduction to this series, read Dr. Loadenthal’s piece here.
To learn about the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) of the dataset, read Mary Bennett’s latest piece here.
